Tesla is headed into its first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday with investors focused on whether the company can keep growth alive after missing delivery expectations and facing fresh pressure on profit. Elon Musk is expected to speak on the earnings call after the close of trading.
The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the quarter, up 6.3% from a year earlier but below analyst estimates of 366,000 to 370,000 units. The results also marked a drop from the record fourth quarter of last year, underscoring how quickly momentum has faded for a business that has been shaped by weak electric vehicle demand, the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of last year and persistently high interest rates that have made car loans more expensive for the average buyer.
That delivery miss matters because Tesla stock is already being judged less on the quarter just ended than on the plans Musk keeps pushing for the years ahead. Profits are expected to be pressured by investments in Cybercab and humanoid robot development, while investors are watching for anything that points to growth initiatives tied to 2026, including robotaxi expansion and humanoid robot production. For now, the market is trying to balance a slowing core auto business against a long list of promises about what comes next.
Jon McNeill, who served as Tesla president from 2015 to 2018, said Musk tends to zero in on what he sees as the most immediate threat to the company. McNeill said Tesla has to have autonomous cars because no buyer will choose a car that does not turn into a chauffeur if given the option, and he said the company also has to be a low-cost manufacturer, with robotics serving as the proxy for that goal. McNeill later wrote about the company in his book The Algorithm.
The tension for investors is that the stock has kept climbing even as expectations for the business have weakened. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said earlier this month that expectations for Tesla performance had collapsed across financial and operating metrics through the end of the decade, even as Tesla shares rose 50% and analyst price targets climbed 32%. Brinkman said investors should approach that setup cautiously because it assumes a sharp improvement later on, while still carrying execution risk and the time value of money. Wednesday's call will show whether Musk gives the market anything concrete enough to justify that bet.
