Eric Swalwell was getting very close to becoming the Democratic candidate for governor of California ten days ago. Then, within hours of allegations of sexual harassment and assault, he abandoned his campaign. He later resigned from Congress and is now under criminal investigation, blowing open a race that was already strange and making Monday’s latest Democratic tracking poll look even more volatile.
The poll, released Monday by the Democratic Party, showed Steve Hilton leading the named candidates with 16% and Chad Bianco second with 14%, while Xavier Becerra rose to 13% from 4% on April 5 to become the top Democrat. Tom Steyer and Katie Porter also gained slightly after Swalwell left, a sign that the Democratic field has been scrambling to fill the vacuum he left behind. What should worry Democrats most is not just Becerra’s climb, but that two Republicans are leading in one of the nation’s bluest states.
That would have sounded impossible seven years into Gavin Newsom’s governorship and even more unlikely in a contest the article describes as the weirdest of any in at least 80 years. But the numbers now point to a race shaped less by party loyalty than by voters looking for someone dependable and trustworthy, and by the collapse of a Democratic front-runner who was almost there before it all fell apart.
For Becerra, the question is whether his jump to 13% is the start of a real 1-2 finish challenge or just a temporary bounce in a field that keeps shifting. For Democrats, Monday’s poll suggests the harder task is not simply finding a nominee, but finding one who can stop the Republican lead from hardening into the story of the campaign.
