Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic, Michael, is on track for a domestic opening of $94 million to $100 million after taking in $38.5 million on Friday alone, a start that would make it one of the biggest biopic launches in box office history. Lionsgate had widened its domestic forecast to $90 million to $100 million before the weekend, and the film’s global launch is now projected to top $200 million.
The opening day build included $12.6 million from Wednesday and Thursday previews, a sign that interest was already running hot before the official Friday tally arrived. Audience reaction has been strong enough to support the numbers: the film carries a 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, an 85 percent definite recommend on PostTrak exit scores and an A- on CinemaScore. Nearly 40 percent of the gross is coming from Imax and other premium large-format screens.
The box office strength comes after a volatile critical response. Rotten Tomatoes scores among critics bounced between 29 percent and 33 percent on Thursday before rising to 40 percent by Thursday night. That kind of split does not usually produce a launch this large, but Michael has been drawing moviegoers across nearly every demo, led by Black and female audiences, and its premium-format play has added more muscle to the opening weekend.
That matters because the film is now within reach of a record-breaking box office place for a music biopic. Universal’s Straight Outta Compton holds the current domestic mark for the genre at $60.1 million, while Fox’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened to $55 million. If Michael holds near the top of the current estimate, it would also become the sixth-biggest opening in Lionsgate history and pass Project Hail Mary for the top domestic opening of 2026 among non-franchise, non-tentpole films.
Overseas, the picture is off to a record-breaking start for an opening in the $114 million range, with Jackson’s fanbase described as enormous in Japan. That part of the story matters too: This Is It earned $196 million at the foreign office, including $57 million from Japan, and Michael is now starting with the kind of global momentum that could turn a domestic breakout into a much bigger international event. The question is no longer whether the movie is working; it is how high the final number can go before the weekend closes.
