James Talarico is running ahead of two Texas Republicans in a new Senate poll, putting the Democrat in striking distance of John Cornyn and Ken Paxton as the state’s GOP primary fight heads toward a May runoff. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,865 likely voters found Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and edging Paxton 46% to 41%.
The numbers matter because Cornyn has been in the Senate since 2002 and has won four consecutive terms, while Paxton is Texas attorney general and one of the state’s best-known Republican figures. Trump has not endorsed either man, and described both as “electable” and “great people,” a neutral posture that leaves the Republican primary unsettled days before Cornyn and Paxton are scheduled to face each other on 26 May.
TPOR’s figures suggest Talarico’s edge is coming largely from Black, Latino and college-educated voters, along with big leads among moderate and independent voters. That coalition is unusual in a Texas Senate race, and it points to a Democrat who is not just running well with his party’s base but drawing across the lines that often decide statewide contests.
The poll’s Republican matchup is only part of the broader picture. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the 100-seat Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats in November to retake control. The party’s path is still considered steeper than the one to the House, but recent polling has given Democrats at least a fighting chance.
The friction in this race is that Cornyn and Paxton are still fighting each other for the nomination before one of them appears on the November ballot, while Talarico is already testing how far a Democrat can push into Texas territory that usually closes fast. If these numbers hold, the Republican runoff will not just decide a nominee; it will help determine whether Texas becomes a real opening for Democrats or just another close poll that never turns into a win.
