Mariano Navone is the model pick to beat Denis Shapovalov when they meet Thursday in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event.
Dimers gives Navone a 58% chance of winning the match and a 56% chance of taking the first set. It also pegs Shapovalov at 53% to cover the games spread at +3.5, while the over 21.5 games line carries a 56% chance of hitting, making over 21.5 the top play in the matchup.
The match is scheduled to begin Thursday at 10:45 AM ET at the ATP Italian Open. This preview is built on Dimers' predictive model and simulations, which also point to Navone as the most likely winner.
The numbers suggest a match that should stay competitive enough to push past 21.5 games, even with Navone holding the edge. For bettors, the split between a Navone win and a relatively tight spread projection is the tension point that shapes the case for the total.
Shapovalov and Navone are entering the first round of the main draw at Rome with the model leaning toward the Argentine, but not by a wide margin. The clearest read from the projections is that the total may be the stronger angle than the outright side.
