The Giants begin a three-game Giants vs Reds series at Great American Ball Park on Monday with little margin for error and no national broadcast to lean on. San Francisco is 6-10. Cincinnati is 9-7.
The numbers point to a meeting of uneven clubs rather than a showcase. If the Yankees series is ignored, the Giants have been roughly league average at the plate over their last 13 games with a 96 wRC+, while the Reds have been far worse over their last 14 at 76 wRC+ and exactly replacement level at 0.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Cincinnati has also been scoring in short supply, hitting.205/.298/.325 as a team and being outscored by the Giants on the full season, 54 to 51.
That is the shape of the series, but the details are what make it interesting. The Giants are hitting.243/.288/.357 overall and have gotten steady production from Casey Schmitt, who owns a 186 wRC+, along with Willy Adames at 127 wRC+, Matt Chapman at 118 wRC+ and Luis Arraez at 106 wRC+. The Reds have a brighter center in Elly De La Cruz, whose 152 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR through his first 16 games stand out even as he has 5 stolen bases, an 11.1% walk rate and a 27.8 strikeout rate. Sal Stewart has been even hotter in a smaller sample, with a 178 wRC+, while Nathaniel Lowe has a 92 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances.
The pitching staff numbers add another layer of uncertainty. Cincinnati has a 4.10 ERA and a 5.09 xERA over its last 125 innings and has walked hitters at a rate of 5.04 per nine innings in that span. San Francisco has been better at limiting free passes, at 4.18 BB/9 over its last 114 innings, but it has still been part of a staff that has lacked polish at times. The projected matchups reflect that tension: Robbie Ray, 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, is set to face Brady Singer, who is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA, on Tuesday at 3:40pm PT; Tyler Mahle, 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA, is projected to start Wednesday at 9:40am PT against Rhett Lowder, 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA; and Landen Roupp, 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA, is lined up for Thursday against Chase Burns.
Cincinnati has still been a difficult stop for San Francisco. The Giants are 11-6 at Great American Ball Park in the 2020s after going 12-21 there in the 2010s, and they won the opening series in Cincinnati last season. With two lineups looking for traction and both clubs carrying uneven run prevention, this series gives the Giants a chance to leave town looking more like the team that has handled the park well in recent years than the one that has spent much of April chasing clean innings.
