Udinese are set to host Parma on Saturday at Bluenergy Stadium in Udine, Italy, with the home side priced at -144, Parma at +120 and the total listed at 3. The matchup brings together a Udinese team sitting at 12-7-13 and a Parma side listed at 8-12-12.
The numbers give Udinese the edge on paper, though not by much. They have 43 points, 38 goals scored and 47 conceded, while Parma have 36 points, 23 goals and 40 goals surrendered. Udinese also own nine shutouts, a 28.1% shutout rate and a goal differential of -9, while Parma have 10 clean sheets but a worse -17 goal differential. Udinese’s season profile includes 62 yellow card warnings and one red card, along with 83 saves and a 61.8% save percentage. Parma have 58 yellow card warnings, four red cards and 93 saves.
That gap shows up in the underlying numbers as well. Udinese are ranked third in xG at 22.2 and have an xGA of 20.9, while Parma’s xG is 18.5. Udinese rank 11th among Big 5 teams with 25 assists, compared with 12 for Parma. Udinese have allowed 47 goals, or 1.47 per 90 minutes, while Parma’s goals-against rate is 1.25 per 90 minutes. The source also lists Maduka Okoye as Udinese’s goalkeeper and Zion Suzuki as Parma’s, a pairing that adds some context to the market leaning toward the home side.
Okoye has played 6,216 minutes in his career, made 204 saves and posted 17 clean sheets, with a 70.3% save percentage. Suzuki has allowed 75 goals and made 145 stops in 52 starting assignments, with a 67.1% save percentage and a 19.3% clean sheet rate. On the attacking side, Nicolo Zaniolo is listed as Udinese’s scoring threat with 39 goals, 22 assists and 100 career points, while Mateo Pellegrino leads the Parma profile with 26 goals, 56 points and a 0.34 goals-per-90-minute rate. The market and the season lines point in the same direction: Udinese have been the more complete side, but the total of 3 suggests the game is still expected to be played in a narrow margin.
