Chris Sutton has backed Newcastle to beat Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday, even though Eddie Howe's side have been in a slump and have twice recently been punished late on. The prediction came before Newcastle faced Bournemouth, with Sutton saying he was still going with Newcastle despite their recent poor results.
The numbers behind the warning sign are stark. Newcastle had dropped 25 points from winning positions this season, five more than any other Premier League club, after late losses against Sunderland and Crystal Palace. Sutton also said he was backing Howe because the law of averages meant he had to get a result against Bournemouth some day.
That is what gives this match its edge. It was the ninth time Howe had faced Bournemouth as Newcastle boss in the Premier League, and he had not beaten them there before this game. Bournemouth arrived fresh from a great win against Arsenal last weekend, while Andoni Iraola was already set to leave at the end of the campaign, so both clubs came into Saturday knowing there was more to this than a routine league fixture.
The tension sits with Newcastle's habit of letting leads slip. Howe has spent enough time on the touchline to know form can turn quickly, but this was a team carrying the weight of those 25 points and the memory of two late collapses. If Newcastle were going to change that story, beating Bournemouth would have been as good a place as any.
For Howe, the test was as personal as it was practical. He had spent years around Bournemouth before moving on, and the league record against his old club had still not turned in his favor. Saturday offered another chance to change that, and Newcastle badly needed one.
