The Chicago Cubs came into April 22 on a seven-game winning streak and were trying to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies after taking the first two games of the series by multi-run margins. The matchup tilted toward offense before the first pitch, with Philadelphia expected to open with Kyle Backhus and then turn to Taijuan Walker for a handful of innings.
Walker’s numbers were the kind that can turn a start into a quick scoring flurry. He carried a 9.16 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP, had allowed six homers in less than 19 innings, and had given up four or more runs in three of his four appearances. Todd Cordell put it bluntly: “That’s a recipe for disaster.”
The Cubs had reasons to like the spot beyond the recent run. They ranked fourth in runs per game and OPS, and they had also cashed the moneyline in their last seven games. Cordell said, “A bad pitching matchup will lead the Cubbies to a victory in a game that should see plenty of offense,” and added that Walker “can’t miss bats and is allowing a ton of quality contact.”
Philadelphia arrived with its own concern. The Phillies had gotten 4 2/3 frames or less from their starter in three straight games, and they used five relievers on April 21 after another short outing, a setup that made the opener plan look less like a tactic than a necessity. The fatigue in the bullpen gave the game a different shape before it even started, and it left the Phillies leaning on an arm that had not pitched since April 1.
Matthew Boyd was the other name shaping the betting angle. He had last pitched on April 1 and had allowed a 17.3% barrel rate early in the season, leaving the Cubs with a chance to attack a pitcher who had not been sharp at the point of contact. The market had already reflected the run of form, with Chicago’s recent results tied to -0.81 win probability added, +7.40 Units and an 88% ROI over seven games. That is the real story of Phillies - Cubs on April 22: one team arriving hot, the other piecing together innings, and a game built to move fast once the scoring started.
