Vilius Gaubas will square off with Felix Auger-Aliassime in the round of 64 at the 2026 ATP Madrid Open on Saturday, with the match scheduled to start at 11:00pm AEST.
Stats Insider’s model gives Auger-Aliassime a 76% chance of winning after simulating the men’s singles match 10,000 times. TAB currently has Gaubas at $4.00 and Auger-Aliassime at $1.25, while the first-set market lists Gaubas at $3.20 and Auger-Aliassime at $1.36. Stats Insider’s recommended bet is Auger-Aliassime at $2.00.
The preview comes as punters look ahead to one of Saturday’s early Madrid Open contests, with the odds accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Stats Insider says its calls are built on data-driven simulations and machine learning, a method that has tilted this matchup firmly toward the Canadian.
That edge is not absolute, and the numbers leave room for a quick start from Gaubas. But the market and the model agree on the same point: Auger-Aliassime enters the round of 64 as the clear favourite, and the pricing reflects it.
For bettors, the question is whether the gap between $1.25 and $4.00 is enough to matter, or whether the first-set lines at $1.36 and $3.20 offer the better read on how this match opens. By the time the match gets under way Saturday night, the figure to watch will be whether Auger-Aliassime turns that forecast into a routine win.
